The International Energy Agency released its World Energy Outlook 2010 today. The report bluntly observed that in terms of taking on Climate Change, actions taken under the expected scenario made “it all but impossible to achieve the 2° C goal” from the Copenhagen Accord.
The 2° C goal is the non-binding objective established at the December 2009 climate change conference in Copenhagen. Based upon the expected scenario of cautious implementation of emissions constraints, the IEA anticipates a “likely temperature rise of more than 3.5° C in the long term.”
The biggest gains in renewable generation are expected from hydro and wind. Solar PV generation is anticipated to grow very rapidly, though still reaching just 2% of global generation in 2035. Under the expected scenario, combined renewable generation is anticipated to reach one-third of global generation and catch up with coal.
With respect to achieving the Copenhagen Accord’s goal, the report states:
“The timidity of current commitments has undoubtedly made it less likely that the 2°C goal will be achieved. Reaching that goal would require a phenomenal policy push by governments worldwide… The technology exists today to enable such a change, but such a rate of technological transformation would be unprecedented. These commitments must be interpreted in the strongest way possible with much stronger commitments adopted and acted upon after 2020, if not before.”